The Future Impact of Climate Change on Crop Production in Balochistan: Challenges and Strategic Solutions

 

The Future Impact of Climate Change on Crop Production in Balochistan: Challenges and Strategic Solutions

Yahya Musakhel, Business Development Manager, Pakistan Poverty Alleviation Fund

Balochistan, Pakistan's largest province, faces an array of interrelated and unresolved challenges in the water and agriculture sectors. Climate change, coupled with population growth, water mismanagement, and unsustainable agricultural practices, has made the situation increasingly precarious. With a fragile agricultural ecosystem and a rising demand for water, the province is at a critical juncture, requiring immediate and integrated reforms to ensure sustainable food and water security.

Water Crisis and Governance Challenges

Water scarcity in Balochistan is not a recent phenomenon but a result of decades of mismanagement and overexploitation. The traditional water management systems such as Karezes, khushkaba, and sailaba—once vital for irrigation and livestock needs—have been disrupted by over-reliance on tube wells and unregulated water extraction. The introduction of diesel and electric-powered tube wells in the 1970s and 1980s led to the indiscriminate pumping of groundwater, which, combined with subsidies and fixed electricity tariffs, has severely depleted the water table.

Today, many regions in Balochistan experience critical water shortages, with groundwater levels dropping to depths of over 1,000 feet in some areas. The destruction of rangelands and deforestation in catchment areas have further reduced the water retention capacity of the soil, increasing the frequency of flash floods and droughts. While the population continues to grow, the absence of a robust water governance framework exacerbates the crisis.

Climate Change and Agricultural Vulnerability

Balochistan's agricultural sector, which supports a significant portion of its population, is highly sensitive to climate variability. Rising temperatures, shifting rainfall patterns, and prolonged droughts have severely impacted crop productivity and livestock.

A recent study leveraging downscaled climate projections (CORDEX-CORE) and the FAO eco-physiological model (PyAEZ) assessed the effects of climate change on ten key crops, including grapes, olives, dates, apples, wheat, and maize. The findings reveal alarming trends:

1. Decline in Crop Yields: Increasing temperatures and erratic rainfall reduce the yields of water-intensive crops such as apples, wheat, and rice.
2. Destruction of Orchards: Long periods of drought have led to the desiccation of 2 million acres of orchards, particularly those growing exotic apple and cherry varieties introduced during the 1970s.
3. Loss of Livestock: Balochistan has lost three-fourths of its livestock population during severe droughts, such as the ones from 1996–2003.
4. Shift to Indigenous Crops: Farmers are beginning to revert to more drought-tolerant indigenous species such as olives, pistachios, and almonds, though these efforts remain limited.

Key Historical Trends in Water Management and Agriculture

Before 1966

• Water extraction was balanced between recharge and discharge.
• Sustainable agricultural practices and collective management of Karezes ensured water availability.
• Livestock formed the backbone of rural economies.

Post-1966

• The introduction of diesel-powered tube wells led to farmland expansion and cultivation of water-intensive crops.
• By the 1970s, subsidized electricity further encouraged over-extraction of groundwater, causing a sharp decline in the water table.
• Traditional institutions governing water resources weakened, replaced by profit-driven individualism.

1980s–2000s

• Afghan refugee influx and population growth increased pressure on natural resources.
• Deforestation for fuel and overgrazing degraded catchment areas, reducing soil water retention capacity.
• Repeated droughts, such as the devastating 1996–2003 drought, led to large-scale migration, loss of farmland, and significant livestock mortality.

2003 Onwards

• Despite efforts to build delay-action dams and promote water harvesting, drought mitigation remains inadequately integrated into government planning.
• Flash floods continue to destroy livelihoods, while droughts persist in arid regions.

Strategic Solutions and Reforms

1. Integrated Water Governance

Water governance must become a top priority in Balochistan's development agenda. This includes:

• Establishing provincial water management authorities.
• Implementing equitable water distribution policies.
• Educating policymakers and consumers on efficient water use.
1. Reviving Traditional Practices

Revitalizing Karezes and promoting indigenous water management systems like khushkaba and sailaba can provide sustainable solutions for irrigation and recharge of groundwater.

3. Promoting Climate-Resilient Agriculture
• Shift focus to drought-resistant indigenous crops such as pistachios, almonds, and pomegranates.
• High efficiency Irrigation and technology insertion and value addition
• Introduce heat-tolerant wheat and maize varieties.
• Provide financial incentives for adopting sustainable farming practices like GRASP project initiatives and Access to finance from Fis.
4. Investing in Technology and Infrastructure
• Build more delay-action dams to enhance surface water storage.
• Develop modern irrigation systems such as drip and sprinkler irrigation to reduce water wastage.
• Encourage research and development in climate-smart agriculture through collaborations with international organizations.
5. Reforestation and Rangeland Rehabilitation
• Launch afforestation campaigns to restore forests in catchment areas.
• Regulate grazing practices to prevent overexploitation of rangelands.
6. Disaster Preparedness and Mitigation
• Develop robust drought and flood preparedness strategies.
• Ensure timely relief and rehabilitation programs for affected communities.

The Way Forward

Balochistan's water and agricultural crises are inherently interconnected, requiring a strategic and integrated approach. Water reforms, effective governance, and investment in sustainable agriculture are critical to mitigating the impact of climate change. Policymakers, farmers, and institutions must work collaboratively to ensure food security, protect livelihoods, and secure water resources for future generations.

With climate smart investments and advancements in technology, Balochistan has the potential to emerge as a model for sustainable water and agricultural management in arid regions. However, the time to act is now—delays in addressing these challenges will only deepen the province's vulnerability to climate change and water scarcity.